Pakistan-based terror teams akin to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), led by 26/11 Mumbai terror assaults mastermind Hafiz Saeed, preserve their coaching camps in some provinces of Afghanistan and a few of them are instantly below the Taliban management, in keeping with a UN report.
The thirteenth report of the Analytical Help and Sanctions Monitoring Crew cites a UN Member State as saying that JeM, a Deobandi group ideologically nearer to the Taliban “maintains eight coaching camps in Nangarhar, three of that are instantly below Taliban management.”
India’s Everlasting Consultant to the UN Ambassador T.S. Tirumurti, in his capability as Chair of the Taliban Sanctions Committee, also referred to as the 1988 Sanctions Committee, transmitted the report back to be “dropped at the eye of the members of the Safety Council and issued as a doc of the Council.” The report stated that Jaish-e-Mohammed, a Deobandi group led by Masood Azhar, is ideologically nearer to the Taliban. Qari Ramazan is the newly appointed head of JeM in Afghanistan.
It added that LeT is described within the earlier Monitoring Crew experiences as having supplied finance and coaching experience to Taliban operations.
“Inside Afghanistan, in keeping with one Member State, it’s led by Mawlawi Yousuf,” the report stated, including that in October 2021, in keeping with one Member State, one other LeT chief, Mawlawi Assadullah, met with Taliban Deputy Inside Minister Noor Jalil.
The identical Member State reported that in January 2022, a Taliban delegation visited a coaching camp utilized by LeT within the Haska Mena district of Nangarhar.
“The group was stated to take care of three camps in Kunar and Nangarhar. Earlier LeT members have included Aslam Farooqi and Ejaz Ahmad Ahangar (a.okay.a. Abu Usman al-Kashmiri), each of whom joined ISIL-Ok,” the report stated.
One other Member State stated that there was no proof of the presence of JeM and LeT within the area as a consequence of efficient safety operations concentrating on them, in keeping with the report.
The report additional stated that the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) constitutes the biggest element of overseas terrorist fighters in Afghanistan, with their quantity estimated to be a number of thousand.
Different teams embody the Japanese Turkistan Islamic Motion (ETIM), Islamic Motion of Uzbekistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Jamaat Ansarullah and the LeT, with every numbering within the few a whole bunch.
It stated the TTP, led by Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, has “arguably benefitted” most of all of the overseas extremist teams in Afghanistan from the Taliban takeover. It has carried out quite a few assaults and operations in Pakistan.
The TTP additionally continues to exist as a stand-alone drive, fairly than feeling stress to merge its fighters into Afghan Taliban models, as is the prospect for many overseas terrorist fighters. The group is estimated to consist of three,000 to 4,000 armed fighters situated alongside the east and southeast Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas, the report stated.
In accordance with one Member State, management of the Ministry of Inside and the Ministry of Refugees and Repatriations offers the Haqqani Community additional factors of contact with the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan, it stated.
“Sirajuddin Haqqani has reportedly been relied upon greater than anybody else within the de facto administration to behave as an middleman between TTP and Pakistan. Haqqani mediations haven’t led to a sustainable ceasefire, however are an extra indication of Mr. Sirajuddin’s central position throughout the Taliban as a mediator and determine of authority amongst rank-and-file of TTP and different primarily Pashtun teams in jap Afghanistan,” the report stated.
“The Haqqani Community continues to be considered having the closest hyperlinks to al-Qaeda…The group continues to be the trusted companion for native facilitation of protected havens and help for the al-Qaeda core, together with by sustaining ties with so-called ‘legacy al-Qaeda’: those that way back established relations with the late Jalaluddin Haqqani and to whom the Haqqanis really feel indebted for supporting them and the Taliban,” the report stated.
The report famous that following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August final yr, the Haqqani Community “moved rapidly” to safe management of sure key portfolios and ministries: inside, intelligence, passports and migration. “Distinguished de facto ministerial positions secured by the Haqqani Community embody these occupied by de facto Inside Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and de facto Minister for Refugees Khalil Ahmed Haqqani,” it stated.
“The Haqqani Community has additionally turn out to be one of the best militarily outfitted faction and controls plenty of armed formations, together with the elite Badri 313 Battalion. The Haqqani Community now largely controls safety in Afghanistan, together with the safety of the capital, Kabul,” the report stated.
The eleventh report of the Analytical Help and Sanctions Monitoring Crew had stated that amongst these teams posing a safety risk, Afghan officers highlighted Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, teams on which the Monitoring Crew has written within the earlier experiences.
It had been stated that the presence of those teams is centred within the jap provinces of Kunar, Nangarhar and Nuristan, the place they function below the umbrella of the Afghan Taliban.
The eleventh report had added that in keeping with Afghan interlocutors, JeM and LeT facilitated the trafficking of terrorist fighters into Afghanistan, who act as advisers, trainers and specialists in improvised explosive gadgets.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan additionally maintains a presence in Lal Pura District, close to the border space of Mohmand Darah, Pakistan. In Kunar Province, LeT retains an extra 220 fighters and JeM has an extra 30, all of whom are dispersed inside Taliban forces, the report added.
Refocusing of terror group from Afghanistan to Kashmir
A change within the identify of the Al-Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) journal “suggests a refocusing” of the fear group from Afghanistan to Kashmir, the identical report has stated.
The report stated that being subordinate to the Al-Qaeda core, the AQIS is sustaining a low profile in Afghanistan, the place nearly all of its fighters are situated. AQIS is reported to have 180 to 400 fighters, with estimates by member states inclining towards the decrease determine.
“Fighters included nationals from Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan and had been situated in Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimruz, Paktika and Zabul Provinces.
It additionally added that AQIS capabilities are assessed as “nonetheless weakened” from losses because of the October 2015 joint United States-Afghan raid in Kandahar’s Shorabak district. AQIS has additionally been compelled by monetary constraints to undertake a much less aggressive posture.
“As with Al-Qaeda core, new circumstances in Afghanistan could enable the group to reorganise itself. The 2020 identify change of the AQIS journal from “Nawa-i Afghan Jihad” to “Nawa-e-Gazwah-e-Hind” suggests a refocusing of AQIS from Afghanistan to Kashmir. The journal reminded its readers that al-Zawahiri had referred to as for “jihad” in Kashmir following the Da’esh Sri Lanka assaults of April 2019,” the report stated, 9 months after the Taliban seized energy in Afghanistan in August final yr.
Within the report, member states additionally reported that interdictions of Afghan-origin medicine have elevated considerably within the second half of 2021, suggesting much less efficient counter-narcotics efforts inside Afghanistan or heightened exercise in anticipation of a ban.
“Three tonnes of Afghan-origin heroin had been seized in India in September 2021. One member state reported that smuggling by way of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Turkey and Europe has elevated by as much as 50% because the Taliban assumed energy.” It stated the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-Ok) concentrated their assaults on the Taliban after the August 15 takeover of Afghanistan, however their exercise declined in direction of the top of 2021, probably due to the winter climate.
“Neither ISIL-Ok nor Al-Qaeda is believed to be able to mounting worldwide assaults earlier than 2023 on the earliest, no matter their intent or of whether or not the Taliban acts to restrain them. However their presence, and the presence of many different terrorist teams and fighters on Afghan soil, offers trigger for concern to the neighbouring member states and the broader worldwide neighborhood,” the report stated.
It added that the bigger strategic path of ISIL-Ok – whether or not they imply to deal with Afghanistan or prioritize the revival of an exterior operational functionality – is unclear.
“No matter ISIL-Ok (and Al-Qaeda) intent, it’s going to take time to attain such a functionality. Member States count on no assaults directed from Afghanistan till 2023 on the earliest, though cross-border assaults stay a chance.” The is the primary one because the August 15 takeover of Kabul by the Taliban.
It notes that the interval between then and April 2022 has seen the Taliban consolidate management over Afghanistan, appointing 41 United Nations-sanctioned people to the Cupboard and different senior-level positions of their de facto administration. They’ve favoured loyalty and seniority over competence, and their decision-making has been opaque and inconsistent.
The report notes that the connection between Al-Qaeda and the Taliban stays shut and is underscored by the presence, each in Afghanistan and the area, of Al-Qaeda’s core management and affiliated teams, akin to Al-Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent.
The report notes that the core Al-Qaeda management below Aiman Muhammed Rabi al-Zawahiri is reported to stay in Afghanistan, extra particularly, the jap area from Zabul Province north in direction of Kunar and alongside the border with Pakistan.
Since August 2021, al-Zawahiri has appeared in eight movies.
Alluding to the hijab row in India, the report stated that in the latest such video of al-Zawahiri, launched on April 5, by Al-Qaeda’s As-Sahab Media Basis, al-Zawahiri “references the defiance of an Indian Muslim feminine in entrance of males protesting the hijab, an occasion that went viral in early February 2022.” “The video supplied the primary conclusive present proof of life for al-Zawahiri lately. The tempo of current communications means that he could possibly lead extra successfully than was attainable earlier than the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan,” it stated.
Member State estimates of ISIL-Ok power vary between 1,500 and 4,000 fighters, concentrated in distant areas of Kunar, Nangarhar and probably Nuristan Province. Smaller covert cells are considered current within the northern provinces of Badakhshan, Faryab, Jowzjan, Kunduz and Takhar.
Geographical distance and ethnic variations (Afghan and Pakistani Pashtuns within the east and ethnic Tajik and Uzbeks within the north) could imply that numerous ISIL-Ok presences round Afghanistan battle to coordinate with one another, as has been the case traditionally.
Nonetheless making an attempt to wrap my head round this one. 
